AJ Mysterio

2020 US Elections Discussion

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I'm gonna take a real bold guess here, and say that DJT wins the Republican nomination.

W.R to the Democratic nomination - right now Bernie is slightly pulling ahead over a crowded field(sort of like the 2016 Rep. nominations)

If that trend of Bernie slightly pulling ahead of the other Dem candidate continues, then he may win a majority of delegates and secure the nomination - or not; he might win only a plurality(both are just as likely to occur, according to 538)

And Bernie might just win the nomination even then - the DNC can argue all day and night on how you need 50% of the delegates to win the nomination, but if he's at, say, 40%, and the other candidates are struggling below his numbers, they would have a hard time justifying nominating another candidate.

If Biden or one of the lower-polling people drop out(seems likely for Klobuchar soon enough), it could decrease Bernie's chance to win.

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I think it will eventually come down to a three way race between Bernie, Warren, and Biden. Out of these three, if Biden drops out early enough (maybe around the time of Super Tuesday?), I believe Elizabeth Warren will win. Otherwise, in the event of a three way deadlock till the end, I believe Bernie will win the nomination. The one thing that may change this is the super delegates, which may give Warren a slight edge.

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If the superdelegates attempted to (all or mostly) attach to a non-Bern candidate while he has a good 5 to 9 percent lead in terms of delegates, and gave that candidate the nomination, there would be such an uproar from the more left-wing contingents that would render any Dem win in 2020 moot. So if Bernie can maintain a decent lead; it'll all be good for him.

 

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Since its pretty much safe to assume that Biden will be the Dem nominee, who do you guys think he'll pick as a running mate? My top two predictions are either Stacey Abrams or Kamala Harris, but I think the two wildcards he may pick would be Michelle Grisham (New Mexican Governor) or Sally Yates (Former Attorney General of the US). He's also mentioned Jeanne Shaheen & Maggie Hassan, both of which are sitting Senators from New Hampshire. It's a state Hillary won by only about 3,000 votes in 2016, and its likely that the President will be spending a lot of time and money there in 2020. My final guess is Gretchen Whitmer, the attractive 48 year old governor from Michigan. It's a 16-vote-state that a nobody expected Trump to win in 2016, and given that 2020 is shaping up to be a close race between the President and the former Vice President, it's virtually impossible for a Democratic candidate to reach 270 without Michigan.

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6 hours ago, Archduke Waffle said:

Since its pretty much safe to assume that Biden will be the Dem nominee, who do you guys think he'll pick as a running mate? My top two predictions are either Stacey Abrams or Kamala Harris, but I think the two wildcards he may pick would be Michelle Grisham (New Mexican Governor) or Sally Yates (Former Attorney General of the US). He's also mentioned Jeanne Shaheen & Maggie Hassan, both of which are sitting Senators from New Hampshire. It's a state Hillary won by only about 3,000 votes in 2016, and its likely that the President will be spending a lot of time and money there in 2020. My final guess is Gretchen Whitmer, the attractive 48 year old governor from Michigan. It's a 16-vote-state that a nobody expected Trump to win in 2016, and given that 2020 is shaping up to be a close race between the President and the former Vice President, it's virtually impossible for a Democratic candidate to reach 270 without Michigan.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's Warren. They need to appeal to the progressive wing (honestly it won't work after all the bullshit that happened w Bernie but I feel like they'll try).

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7 minutes ago, Agent P said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it's Warren. They need to appeal to the progressive wing (honestly it won't work after all the bullshit that happened w Bernie but I feel like they'll try).

True. I thought about Warren, but I think she may be too far left for Biden. And I think the ship has sailed when it comes to Biden bringing people over from the Bernie crowd. If Sanders isn't the nominee, I can plausibly see the "Bernie or bust" crowd staying home on election day, regardless of who Biden's VP is.

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6 hours ago, Agent P said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it's Warren. They need to appeal to the progressive wing (honestly it won't work after all the bullshit that happened w Bernie but I feel like they'll try).

You're going to vote this time, right?  

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14 hours ago, Archduke Waffle said:

Since its pretty much safe to assume that Biden will be the Dem nominee, who do you guys think he'll pick as a running mate? My top two predictions are either Stacey Abrams or Kamala Harris, but I think the two wildcards he may pick would be Michelle Grisham (New Mexican Governor) or Sally Yates (Former Attorney General of the US). He's also mentioned Jeanne Shaheen & Maggie Hassan, both of which are sitting Senators from New Hampshire. It's a state Hillary won by only about 3,000 votes in 2016, and its likely that the President will be spending a lot of time and money there in 2020. My final guess is Gretchen Whitmer, the attractive 48 year old governor from Michigan. It's a 16-vote-state that a nobody expected Trump to win in 2016, and given that 2020 is shaping up to be a close race between the President and the former Vice President, it's virtually impossible for a Democratic candidate to reach 270 without Michigan.

Hmmmm.

I think there will be substantial pressure from Dems for the VP to be a POC, and a woman at that, so Abrams/Harris are indeed alright choices. Grisham is good; she's rather competent at her job, so that works as well. 

NH & Mich swung to the Dems in the 2018 midterms(Sununu is one of those moderate New England Rep. governors, unlike Trump, who is -18 in terms of his approval margin in NH), but it'd still be good to help shore up the vote there. 

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On 3/24/2020 at 9:53 AM, Archie said:

You're going to vote this time, right?  

Yes most probably

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